2025 Mercury Prize shortlist picks and predictions

Sharing my own picks and predictions ahead of Wednesday's announcement

After last year's rather muted ceremony, the Mercury Prize is back with a bang in 2025, with a full show and new venue to boot.

The move to Newcastle, culminating in the award show at the 11,000-seater Utilita Arena and preceded by a Mercury Fringe festival, is to be welcomed after a scaled-back award show last year due to a lack of sponsors.

With concerns about the long-term viability of the Prize more than 30 years after it was introduced, this revival of the headline format, not to mention the surrounding events, is just what was needed and hopefully makes the 2024 edition an anomalous low point.

Pushed a little later in the year than usual, the starting gun will be fired on Wednesday (10 September) when the 12 shortlisted albums will be announced exclusively on BBC Radio 6 Music.

Both a Prize meant to mark the best of British and Irish music over a '12'-month period (19 July 2024-29 August 2025 this year), as well as elevate unheralded artists to a wider audience.

Therefore, it's virtually impossible to call which albums will make the list and listening to those I'm unfamiliar with is a bit of a yearly tradition. Still, that hasn't stopped me scouring my own scores from the eligible timeframe to share my 12 picks, as well as create a separate list with my predicted list. Both likely to be miles off but the sort of endeavour I geekily enjoy. Any feedback on these, let me know!

My 12

Presenting my picks from the eligible time period and keeping it simple by choosing those with the highest scores from a much smaller sample than the judges will be choosing from!

The Amazons - 21st Century Fiction

An ambitious, cohesive and hard-rocking fourth effort from the Reading band, this has been one of the best of 2025 so far, easily making my list.

Watch the 5-9 Album of the Month review of the album here: Album Review: The Amazons - 21st Century Fiction

BC Camplight - A Sober Conversation

Tackling traumatic demons from his past, A Sober Conversation is perhaps Brian Christinzio's most direct album, albeit the idiosyncrasies of the project are very much alive and present on album no. 7. Born in New York, Christinzio gained British citizenship a few years ago, declaring that it made previous album The Last Rotation of Earth eligible for Mercury Prize nomination. That declaration went unheralded and his second opportunity is likely to not make the grade either, despite being warranted according to this writer with his most accomplished and engaging effort yet.

Watch the 5-9 Album of the Month review of the album here: Album Review: BC Camplight - A Sober Conversation

The Cure - Songs of a Lost World

One band not exactly needing a leg up from the industry, but entirely deserving of consideration for their 14th LP. Sumptuous goth-rock from the Crawley legends a mere 16 years after their last album.

Watch the 5-9 Album of the Month November 2024 podcast for our views on the album here: 5-9's Album of the Month Podcast: November 2024

Du Blonde - Sniff More Gritty

Following up 2021's superb Homecoming, Newcastle native Beth Jeans Houghton maintained the supply of compelling rock tunes, tackling hard-hitting themes and incorporating guest contributions from the likes of Skin from Skunk Anansie and Laura Jane Grace.

Watch the 5-9 Album of the Month review of the album here: Album Review: Du Blonde - Sniff More Gritty

Fontaines D.C. - Romance

The fourth album from the Dublin rock band saw them go to a new stratosphere popularity-wise and justifiably so with Grian Chatten & co. coming up with some of the best hits of their excellent output so far, including 'Starburster' and 'Favourite'.

Watch the 5-9 Album of the Month review of the album here: Album Review: Fontaines D.C. - Romance

Hayden Thorpe - Ness

Unlike any other album which could make the list, Ness is a dark, absorbing composition inspired by the Robert Macfarlane book of the same name. The music is an ode to Orford Ness, which was a top secret military testing site and has been transformed into a National Trust-operated nature reserve, and is the most singular album from the former Wild Beasts frontman.

Watch the 5-9 Album of the Month review of the album here: Album Review: Hayden Thorpe - Ness

Laura Marling - Patterns in Repeat

A four-time Mercury Prize nominee, Patterns in Repeat is unlikely to bring home the win even if she earns a fifth nomination. While it doesn't reach the heights of Song for Our Daughter, for example, the album is a deft showcase of everything which makes Marling such an accomplished artist, with themes on motherhood - theory made practice following her aforementioned previous Mercury nomination.

Watch the 5-9 October 2024 Album of the Month podcast for our thoughts on the album: 5-9's Album of the Month Podcast: October 2024

Little Simz - Lotus

With NO THANK YOU conspicuous by its absence on the 2022 shortlist, 2021's winning artist fully deserves a spot this year for a fantastic comeback of sorts after leaving the success of her collaboration with producer Inflo and pursuing legal action against him. With Miles Clinton James at the production wheel, Lotus marks a change of direction for the London rapper but, crucially, the great music and virtuosity of Simz continues to shine through, maintaining her hot streak starting with first Mercury-nominated project, Grey Area.

Watch the 5-9 Album of the Month review of the album here: Album Review: Little Simz - Lotus

Michael Kiwanuka - Small Changes

Another former winner in 2019, Michael Kiwanuka's long-awaited follow-up to KIWANUKA left behind some of the ambition so prevalent on that effort. While quieter, Small Changes demonstrates that Kiwanuka is an artist to be reckoned with who can craft cinematic sonic textures with great skill as he reckons with the passing of time on album no. 4.

Watch 5-9's November 2024 Album of the Month podcast to hear our thoughts on the album: 5-9's Album of the Month Podcast: November 2024

Orla Gartland - Everybody Needs a Hero

A pop record packed full of tunes, Dublin's Orla Gartland struck gold on her second album, earning a well-deserved Choice Prize (the Irish equivalent of the Mercury) nomination earlier this year. Like Choice Prize winners Fontaines D.C., Gartland makes my list for the British and Irish prize!

Watch 5-9's Choice Prize podcast special for our thoughts on the album here: 5-9 Podcast Special: RTÉ Choice Music Prize 2025

Wolf Alice - The Clearing

2018 winners Wolf Alice have seen each of their previous three efforts nominated - a 100% record which is surely unique. While The Clearing may not hit the heights of those previous records, the bold new direction allowing a platform for Ellie Rowsell to sing her heart out has enough tunes and providing a strong narrative arc is certainly worthy of a fourth nomination in 2025.

Keep an eye out for the review in the 5-9 August 2025 Album of the Month podcast!

Young Knives - Landfill

Nominated for their debut in 2006, the Leicestershire band have perhaps never quite received the acclaim for their work in the two decades since, but Landfill saw a return to their indie-rock roots augmented by the more experimental side of their recent efforts to create a weird, compelling album fully worth your time.

Read the 5-9 review here: ALBUM REVIEW: Young Knives - Landfill

My predictions

Mostly compiled from those which have done well in the press and those I have yet to listen to enough to form a rounded view on them.

Caroline - Caroline 2

Very much meeting the indie zeitgeist necessary to make the list, the London eight-piece gained much critical acclaim upon the release of their second album, which includings a contribution from pop royalty in Caroline Polachek no less.

CMAT - Euro-Country

CMAT's star continues to rise and buoyed by a heady mix of critical acclaim and TikTok fame, a second successive Mercury nod for the Irish artist seems a safe bet.

Emma-Jean Thackray - Weirdo

One which could meet the jazz quota, Thackray has gained acclaim from BBC Radio 6 Music, as well as Jazz FM and MOBO. I've yet to hear the full album enough to judge it myself, but the few tracks I've listened to enough suggest this is a 2025 must-listen and has enough to perhaps sneak onto the list.

FKA Twigs - Eusexua

Hailed as a return to form for the Cheltenham artist, what have I heard suggests the critics are on the money here and a nomination would offer a suitable moment to judge for myself.

Fontaines D.C. - Romance

BRAT-lite in terms of its cultural resonance, the Romance juggernaut should ensure a second Mercury nomination for the Dublin outfit.

Geordie Greep - The New Sound

A favourite of the Mercury Prize through his work with former band, black midi, Greep's first solo effort gained much praise in the music media which should make the album a shoo-in on Wednesday.

Jamie xx - In Waves

Likely to be a strong contender for dance music representation, Jamie xx's long-awaited follow-up to debut Mercury-nominated effort In Colour had enough critic weight behind it to follow suit.

Kae Tempest - Self Titled

Tempest's first full-length since coming out as a trans man, the artist tackles identity in a hard-hitting album beloved of music critics and one I'm keen to hear in full myself, having been impressed by the singles.

Little Simz - Lotus

Like Romance, I think Lotus offers a rare opportunity for the judging committee to align with my own list and in Simz's instance, right the wrong of NO THANK YOU's omission in 2023.

PinkPantheress - Fancy That

A TikTok sensation, Bath's PinkPantheress gained positive press for this second mixtape of hers which, despite its short runtime, might see the judges reward her and give a favourite for the younger generation to be drawn into the competition.

Pulp - More

1996 winners Pulp are favourites of the Prize with many nominations either side of their win in a stacked year for it. Their first album in 24 years has been well received by the music press with some strong singles and could earn them the 'legend' slot at the awards.

Sam Fender - People Watching

Surely? A first awards in Newcastle coming in a year where Geordie Fender has released his third critically acclaimed album. It would be a huge omission, even though I wasn't a huge fan of it having loved his first two albums, and is the sort of nomination which should shift tickets to the event next month.

So, there you have it. What do you think? On the money? Or way off? Let me know!